ANALYSIS OF A PLANNED CATASTROPHE. Too Many Clues Accuse Kiev on Dam Explosions. It had been Hit by Missiles US Himars or Ukraine Vilkha

ANALYSIS OF A PLANNED CATASTROPHE. Too Many Clues Accuse Kiev on Dam Explosions. It had been Hit by Missiles US Himars or Ukraine Vilkha


by Fabio Giuseppe Carlo Carisio


«The barbaric act of destroying the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in Kherson region» Russian President Vladimir Putin said accusing Ukraine and its Western backers of gambling on a path of “dangerous escalation”.

He did this statement speaking to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by phone in the days after the Kakhovka dam was partially ruptured on Tuesday morning, causing flooding in multiple towns and villages along the Dnieper River.

According to Putin, this has led to a “massive ecological and humanitarian catastrophe” downstream.

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At least ten people were reported to have been killed and 42 were missing as of 12 June 2023.

The president added that Ukraine is “committing war crimes [and] is openly using terrorist methods,” including on Russian soil. All of these are being aided and abetted by Western powers, Putin noted.

The NORSAR seismic array of detectors (including one in Romania, 620 km (390 mi) from the dam), detected signals that NORSAR scientists interpreted as a weak seismic event from the direction of the dam at 02:35 Ukrainian summer time, and a stronger, magnitude 1–2 signal representing an explosion occurring at 02:54, as reported by the Guardian.

An infrared heat signature, consistent with that of a major explosion, was detected by United States spy satellites at the dam shortly before it collapsed according to an anonymous US official, according to Washington Post.

Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, accused the “Kiev regime” of carrying out a “terrorist plot.” He added that there were indications that the act of sabotage had been planned well in advance.

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According to the diplomat, Kiev took the drastic step of freeing up its forces for the counteroffensive elsewhere, as well as “taking revenge on the Crimeans for their choice in favor of Russia and leaving the population of Crimea without water.”

Nebenzia dismissed Ukraine’s version of events, according to which it was Russian forces that blew up the dam, as a “well-coordinated disinformation campaign.”

Also Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov argued that the dam had been destroyed as a result of a “deliberate sabotage by the Ukrainian side.”

The official claimed that the leadership in Kiev had targeted the power plant as reprisal for what he described as botched attempts at a counteroffensive.


Their comments come as even two of the most important nations in NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, the UK and the US, financiers of the 2014 coup in Kiev and later accused of being complicit in the sabotage of the NordStream gas pipelines and of the Kerch bridge linking Crimea to Krasnodar region of Russia, caution is being used in identifying who is responsible for terrible disaster

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It has also worsened as 150 tons of oil leaked from the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant and flowed into the waters of the Dnieper River with serious nightmares for the surrounding agricultural fields and the Black Sea where the oily slick is about to spill.

The hesitation of London and Washington was even emphasized by the Kiev Post which, however, did not say too much about the responsibilities for the sabotage.

«Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of a meeting at the OECD in Paris, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “We’re not going to say anything until we are completely armed with all the available facts.”» reported the newspaper of the Ukrainian capital.

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He did, however, say Russia bore ultimate responsibility as the destruction of the dam was a consequence of its full-scale invasion launched last year. “It’s clear that this event is a direct repercussion of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there’s nothing that Russia can do to hide that fact,” he said.

The US has taken an almost identical line, saying it is continuing to assess what happened, but adding: “Russia has no business to be [in Ukraine] in the first place. This dam was under Russia’s control, and they bear responsibility for the destruction caused by this war.”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has instead met with an emergency coordination group with Ukraine on the “outrageous destruction” of the dam.

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The solitary position of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is similar, who, as if she were madly seduced and in love with Zelensky, buys into his every statement on the war against Putin, which has turned out to be false and hypocritical on more than one occasion

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky went to visit the flood victims of the Kherson region on the west side of the river, which has now become the geographical line of the war front between the Ukrainian and Russian armies, continuing to reiterate that it was the Russians who detonated the ‘infrastructure.

But multiple probative clues point to the opposite. Let’s analyze them.


«Ukrainian troops witnessed Russian soldiers being swept up in floodwaters and fleeing the east bank of the Dnipro River after the collapse of the Nova Khakovka dam, an officer in Ukraine’s armed forces said. Many Russian troops were killed or wounded in the chaos, according to the officer» wrote the CNN network..

«Capt. Andrei Pidlisnyi said when the dam collapsed in the early hours of Tuesday morning “no one on the Russian side was able to get away. All the regiments the Russians had on that side were flooded.”» it added.

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«Pidlisnyi told CNN he believed the Russians had deliberately attacked the dam to disrupt Ukrainian forces’ plans for an upcoming offensive.

Pidlisnyi explained that the lay of the land around the river meant that Russia’s military — located on the east bank — suffered serious impacts in the dam’s breach. His unit was able to watch the events unfold through the use of drones and troops on the scene.

The Russian units in harm’s way may not have been warned, possibly to maintain the element of surprise, Pidlisnyi said.

A sneaky and infamous tactic that does not suit a former KGB military official like Putin who is also a devout Orthodox Christian who cares about his too many to the point of sending them an icon of Christ the Savior to be circulated on pilgrimage among them…

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The general «testimony does not seem to support the hypothesis of a deliberate sabotage by Russia, but rather that of a sudden structural failure of the dam» writes the Italian agency Nova News, an expert in military geopolitics by virtue of the partnership with the Italian war industry Leonardo .

But this thesis is in fact denied by the extent of the tens of meters in length of the gash in the reinforced concrete containment barrier and by other statements contained in the article.

«According to the US television station, satellite photos show that the dam appeared overall structurally intact at least until May 28; photographs taken a few days later, on June 5, instead show significant damage to a section of the road that crowned the edge of the dam, a damage that appears to have been caused by an external attack, perhaps through artillery shells» writes Nova.


This hypothesis was confirmed in detail by a Russian civil authority and by a video posted on YouTube by NBC.

«There were explosions at the Ukrainian Kakhovka dam in early November 2022. British military intelligence at the time said it was almost certainly the work of Russian forces using controlled detonations» writes the American site which is known to be a propaganda network of the Biden administration and the US Democrats of which he supported all the propaganda on ineffective and dangerous Covid vaccines.

Let us not forget that British counterintelligence MI6 has been accused by an American investigative journalist of planning the bomb attack on the Kerch Bridge which connects Crimea to the Russian province of Krasnodar.

The reality of the facts is another. There have been explosions but they are more compatible with the launch of rockets than with mysterious internal detonations for no reason…

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«Ukrainian troops had been preparing for over six months to destroy the Kakhovka hydro-electric power plant (HPP) before delivering a final devastating strike, Novaya Kakhovka Administration Head Vladimir Leontyev said» wrote the TASS – Russian News Agency.

But this statement was also confirmed by the Washington Post which, as we wrote in the previous article, published an interview with a Ukrainian general in which he claimed to have deliberately launched some missile launches against the external sluice gates of the dam to test the possibility of any future sabotage. The news has now been reported by almost all the newspapers of the world.

Now let’s see in detail the probative evidence of sabotage by the Kiev army.

As the mayor pointed out, “by strange coincidence,” the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir was raised by 1.5 meters before the Ukrainian military crushed the HPP’s dam by its final strike on June 6.

Novaya Kakhovka Mayor Vladimir Leontyev

«They carried out flights by drones over the area and they knew perfectly well where each rocket of the HIMARS system [the US-made multiple launch rocket system supplied to the Kiev regime by Western countries] would hit its target and they knew the HPP condition and delivered the final strike precisely against weak sections. That is, [they] had been preparing and deliberately destroying the HPP for over six months… And why was the water level raised by over 1.5 meters in the Kakhovka reservoir almost a day or two before that?» the mayor said in a live broadcast on Russia’s TV Channel One.

The Ukrainian military shelled New Kakhovka for the first time on June 11, 2022 and began massive bombardments of the Kakhovka HPP in July that year, he said.

«In August and September, they intensified significantly. As a result, the sluice gateway and the road pavement were impacted: exactly the facilities that were destroyed. During four months last year, HIMARS rockets surely ‘bolstered’ the Kakhovka HPP structural strength. What happened afterwards was the consequence, the last straw» the Novaya Kakhovka mayor stressed.

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«The Kakhovka HPP is part of the Dnieper cascade of hydro-electric power stations. Overnight to June 6, the Ukrainian military delivered a strike against the Kakhovka HPP, destroying the plant’s hydraulic valves and triggering an uncontrolled discharge of water» the TASS added.


In defense of Ukraine many Italian newspapers unfortunately even taken up by the director of Radio Maria, the Catholic priest Father Livio Fanzaga who believes every lie spread by Russophobic propaganda even though it is the same one that supports Gay Pride, have spread a political theory imbued with profound ignorance about the military context.

Indeed, they argued that the suicide bombing by the Russians was triggered to flood the Kherson area and stop the much-heralded Kiev counter-offensive.

The map of the war front elaborated by the specialized site South Front: as you can see, the fights of the counteroffensive are all in the eastern regions of Ukraine, well away from the Dnepr river

Absolutely false. The Ukrainian military has never attempted, and never would, a suicide attack that involves fording the Dnieper River. Suffice it to say that even the powerful army, which had conquered the city of Kherson and created an outpost in the territory on the western side controlled by the Ukrainians, was eventually forced to retreat due to supply difficulties.

That is why the river has become the impassable line of the war front between the Ukrainian and Russian armies.

In confirmation of this, it should be noted that all the failed attempts to attack Kiev, with almost 5 thousand soldiers killed in a few days (almost 4 thousand in the first few days and another thousand on Wednesday of last week), took place in the eastern regions of the Karkov oblast and Donbass ( Lugansk and Donetzk) which are about a hundred kilometers away from the dam.


The hypothesis of Ukrainian sabotage from the dam was also indirectly confirmed by another serious episode that occurred two days before the explosion in the hydroelectric plant.

An ammonia pipeline has been damaged in Ukraine’s Kharkov region, the head of the regional military administration, Oleg Sinegubov, said on Monday.

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By blowing up the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, the Kiev regime cut off the ability to supply ammonia to global markets and dealt a major blow to the personal efforts of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to fight famine in poor countries Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday.


To close the analysis, it remains only to understand how Ukraine would have blown up the dam. Internal sabotage is deemed impossible because the hydroelectric plant was patrolled by the Russian military day and night as it was considered a sensitive target for previous missile attacks and, if it had managed to take place, it would have left obvious traces.

Some self-styled analysts argued that the length of the hole in the protective wall was too large to have been from a missile.

But in fact the attack experiment attempted by the army of Ukraine in winter 2022, as claimed by the Washington Post, was tested with the use of the rocket launcher supplied by the US to Kiev M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System which can fire in seconds a barrage of missiles on the same target triggering deadly explosions.

This system is supported by a truck and can also launch the latest M31A2 rockets with a 200 lb (91 kg) high explosive unitary warhead. Range: 15–92 km (9.3–57.2 mi). Improved M31A1 with Insensitive Munition Propulsion System (IMPS). Only M31 variant in production since 2019.

In a first article, however, the Russian news agency TASS had hypothesized that an almost identical war instrument had been used, the pride of Ukrainian production.

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We are talking about the Vilkha (Ukrainian: «Вільха», “Alder tree”, also Olkha) which is a heavy multiple rocket launcher also capable of firing guided missiles. Designed by the Luch Design Bureau, it was based on the BM-30 Smerch rocket launch system and developed in the 2010s. Vilkha entered service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2018.

The upgraded Vilkha-M uses the improved R624M rocket, which reduces warhead weight to 170 kg to achieve a greater range of 130 km, albeit with lower accuracy of 30 m CEP. Projectiles that further extend the range are under development.

The Ukrainian-made Vilkha rocket launcher very similar to the HIMARS

The hypothesis that favors the use of HIMARS derives from the fact that the Vilkha were used in the first period of the war, before the supply of the American rocket launcher, and therefore in theory the supply could have been exhausted.

But it should not be forgotten that the range length is almost 50 km longer than the system provided by the USA precisely to prevent Kiev from doing extensive damage from a distance in Russian territory, further exacerbating the conflict in a formal and open way.

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In fact, the attacks in the Belgorod region are perpetrated by neo-Nazi terrorists of Russian nationality, certainly trained in Ukraine by the CIA, but with whom Zelensky denies any involvement.

The problem was overcome with the supply of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to the Ukrainian military, all of which have so far been intercepted by Russian defensive batteries. Unlike the latter, the HIMARS and the Vilkha are much more difficult to intercept precisely because they are multiple rocket launchers and fly at low altitude.


One final curiosity.

The Luch Design Bureau which produces the innovative Ukrainian missile is part of Ukroboronprom, the national war industry, of which the former parliamentarian Mustafa Nayyem was deputy director (from 2019 to 2021).

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He is the Islamic reporter of Afghan origin who gave the via the EuroMadian square protests thanks to the support of Mark Zuckerberg on Facebook in November 2014 when the Hromadske.TV he worked for was financed by George Soros and the Kiev embassies of some NATO nations including the USA and the United Kingdom.

The shooting of some mysterious mercenary snipers against demonstrators but also policemen loyal to the pro-Russian government, similar to the one concocted by the American counterintelligence of the CIA in Caracas in 2002, caused the revolt to explode, transforming it into a regime-change coup already attempted by Soros with the Orange Revolution 10 years earlier.

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Nayem was fired as deputy director of Ukroboronprom on April 29, 2021 for dismissal of the post (confirming that it was most likely a recognition political role for his 2014 revolutionary activity). But from 4 August 2021 to 28 January 2023 he became Deputy Minister of Infrastructure. On 28 January 2023, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine appointed Nayyem as head of the State Agency for Infrastructure Restoration and Development.

Being a coup plotter is therefore a very rewarding mission (if you survive…)

How fascinating the world is when everything appears circular in confirmation of a tremendous diabolical premeditation.

Fabio Giuseppe Carlo Carisio
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